Judging by the initial moves with the 53 man roster cut down, I was right on track with what the Saints did at running back. If you read my blog last week I predicted that the Saints would put Chris Ivory on the PUP list. This way they have extra insurance at the running back position. Should any of the other guys get hurt early in the season Sean Payton can call on Ivory after week six to fill that need. The guess here is if Ivory is not healed by week six and he looks to be out of action for longer than 8 to 10 weeks then Ivory will go on IR for the season. Otherwise, I wouldn't be a bit surprised if Payton brings in Ivory with the other four RB's considering what happened last year. In case you've forgotten Saints Fans, by the time we got to Seattle we had every running back on the roster injured and out or at less than 100%. If we would have beaten the Seahawks, we still would have gone into the next week without a viable running game. In other words we weren't going any further than that anyway. In addition to the running backs Payton decided he would keep two fullbacks on the roster, though this could change before the season starts since we only have 2 tight ends currently on the roster. My guess is if he can find a quality 3rd tight end(probably a veteran) on the waiver wire then the rookie fullback Jed Collins would make a good developmental squad candidate. Coach Payton may just feel a little more comfortable having the extra backs on the roster. We'll see. With regards to the receivers I am not sure I follow keeping Courtney Roby since Darren Sproles was supposed to be returning kickoffs. With the new rule of kicking off from the 35 yard line, is it really necessary to have a return specialist anyway? It seems now we have 2 players to do the same job. I understand that Roby also covers punts and kicks on special teams, but still I am not sure I couldn't have found a more useful player to fill that roster spot. Evidently Coach Payton has a lot of confidence in Roby to be an overall contributor.
The big question I have this year is not on offense but once again on defense. Which Gregg Williams defense is going to show up this year? The opportunistic 2009 defense with all of the forced turnovers and scoring touchdowns or the lackadaisical defense that showed up in 2010 forcing very few turnovers. If he can get the Saints to be one of the top ten defenses then we have a shot at going back to the "Big Game". The Saints have such a high powered offense that if the defense can just give us a couple more possessions especially in the opposing teams Red Zone then the Saints will be a force this year. So far in the preseason only glimpses of what's to come. Will our defense look like the one against San Francisco or the one against Houston? That my fellow Saints fans is the 100 Million Dollar question!
If you talk to the Big Network TV prognosticators, the Saints don't stand a chance against the Super Bowl Champion Packers. Some saying the Saints will lose by 2 touchdowns or more. Vegas however, has the Packers a 4 point favorite, just one point over the home field advantage of 3 points given to a home team when there are two evenly matched teams. In other words, if the two were playing on a neutral field the Packers would only be favorite by one point. Always follow the money movers. They know better than any TV announcer. Having said that, I am also a student of history. Since this Thursday experiment has begun(2004 was the first year) with the playing of last years Super Bowl Champ, in the first game of the season, against either a rival or the previous year's Title Game match up, the reining Super Bowl Champion has won a staggering 7 out of 7. Going back even further both the Bucs in 2003 and the Patriots in 2002 also won their opening games. That makes it 9 out of 9. You might ask why? Well, partly the reining Super Bowl Champions are at home. They are pumped up because they just had their Championship Banner unfurled. What is the only difference in this year's game? This will be the very first time that the NFL has pitted the last two Super Bowl Champions against each other since starting this Thursday Night kick off of the season. Could this be the time that history doesn't follow? I assure you of one thing....this will be an exciting game which will go down to the wire. You already know where my allegiance lies but this is an honest blog and I can't pick with my heart. This game will go down to whoever has the ball last and probably be decided by a last second score. If I were a betting person I would take the Saints and the 4 points. Unfortunately, Saints Fans even up the Saints will lose this heart breaker in Lambeau with a last minute drive from Aaron Rodgers and a Mason Crosby field goal to win. Its okay though, I am still picking the Saints to win the Division with an 11-5 record with the Falcons getting a Wildcard invite at 10-6. The Bucs could be battling the Lions for the 2nd Wildcard and will have a solid season. The Panthers are rebuilding and anything over 6 wins would be a positive.
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